By Morten Bjørn.
Pisco is continuously monitoring all land-based salmon farmers, their performance and their track of production. In the following, I have tried to estimate expected production output in 2026 from various facilities that are already in operation.
As more and more facilities come online the variability in datasets becomes obvious. Growth and harvest size influence the output of the individual facilities. Many facilities have also assumed a too high productivity per rearing volume per year (Production Index), resulting in many facilities struggling to reach intended production output targets.
The main reasons for variations between productivity in the facilities can be attributed to:
- Target harvest size
- Higher average harvest size reduces potential output volume
- Lower average harvest size increases potential output volume
- Temperature, especially relevant for flow-through systems
- Facilities running on ambient temperature experiences variations in production growth over the year
- Lower average temperatures in flow-through facilities reduce growth and subsequently production output
Water quality is often referred to as key for achieving good growth and subsequent good harvest results. Whilst it is fundamentally true, the actual effect on growth benchmarked between the facilities generally indicates little difference. In other words, the current facilities all have adequate or good water quality, except for maybe Proximar that has reported problems.
The main difference between facilities is likely caused by CO2 concentrations in the water. Whilst Salmon Evolution has not reported high values, they are likely encountering above 15 mg/l in the tanks, when operating at peak capacity. Gigante on the other hand has reported 1-2 mg/ l, which is very low. Precise effect on growth is however difficult to gauge, as Gigante operates on ambient variable temperature, whilst Salmon Evolution have the means to operate at constant temperature.
With that said let me progress to the estimated harvest volumes for 2026. All data below is given in live fish weight equivalents and should not be confused with Heads On Gutted (HOG) that is used by many companies to report harvest. Wherever HOG has been used by companies to report harvest or expected harvest a ratio of HOG to LWE of 0.85 has been assumed. This ratio is however likely to vary between facilities, especially production of smaller fish is likely to cause a lower ratio.
Salmon Evolution
Pisco expects the company to harvest about 7,000 tons from a standing biomass of 3,115 tons. This number covers phase I and does not account for potential batches that will reach harvest size in the new phase II. The first smolt are planned to be released in the new tanks in week 17 of 2026 and are unlikely to be harvested before Q1 2027.
The company guides a harvest of 8,235 tons for 2026. In 2025 the total harvest was about 5,180 tons. Harvest weight was relatively low in 2025 with average harvest size of about 3.7 kg.
The phase I annual production output target was 9,300 tons before initiation of production.
Atlantic Sapphire
Pisco expects the company to harvest about 7,000 tons from a standing biomass of 3,437 tons. The facility seems to be running relatively stable now, with a slightly increasing output, compared to the early years with recurrent problems with high temperatures and other operational problems.
The company guides a harvest of 8,824 – 10,000 tons moving forward. In 2025 the total harvest was about 5,995 tons. Harvest weight was relatively low in 2025 with average harvest size of about 3.4 kg.
The phase I annual production output target was 11,000 tons before initiation of production.
Nordic Aqua Partners
Pisco expects the company to harvest about 6,800 tons from a standing biomass of 3,749 tons. The facility is probably the most difficult to predict, as the new phase II is now operational and the earlier problems with off-flavour and culling of a large proportion of the stock results in somewhat fluctuating output. Pisco estimates that the biomass removed and not harvested accounts for about 2,600 tons (all years). Average harvest size has also varied wildly in 2025 with 7.5 kg in Q1, 5.6 in Q2, 3.8 kg in Q3 and 4.0 kg in Q4. Pisco estimate of production output has been guided down due to the company’s stated target of producing larger fish. If NAP were targeting 4.5 kg fish, the likely output in 2026 would be 7,900 tons LWE.
The company guides a harvest of 5,882 – 7,058 tons in 2026. Harvest is likely to be skewered towards the second half of the year with first harvest from phase II in September. In 2025 the total harvest was about 2,383 tons. Average harvest size was of about 4.7 kg in 2025 with fish considerably larger in H1 than in H2. The company targets a harvest weight of 7 kg fish moving forward.
The two first phases of the facility were planned with production output of 9,400 tons per year combined.
Gigante Salmon
Pisco expects the company to harvest about 3,835 tons from a standing biomass of 3,000 tons. Approximately 2,835 tons will come from Generation Autumn 2024 and the remaining will come from Generation Autumn 2025 (Q4 harvest). The standing biomass is likely to be much higher at end of 2026 (8,000 tons) with the remaining basins likely to be operational from Q2 2026. Harvest volume will be heavily affected by the average harvest size of the 2024 batch (assumed average 4.5 kg). If fish are withheld for longer in the system the harvest volume could deviate from expectations with up to 15%.
The company has not guided a harvest target for 2026. Harvest is likely to be skewered towards the first half of the year as the 2024 batch is harvested. In 2025 the total harvest was about 1,223 tons.
The company’s target is to reach an annual production output of 18,823 tons in the facility.
Andfjord Salmon
Pisco expects the company to harvest about 1,600 tons in 2026, assuming the first batch in K0 reaches 4.5 kg on average before end of year. Standing biomass was 530 tons end of 2025. This is in line with realized growth from their trial batch in 2022/ 2023. It is not expected that the second batch in K1 is harvested before Q1 2027, albeit partial harvest could happen earlier, which could then drive up 2026 Harvest with as much as 1,000 tons.
By Q2 2026 Anfjord Salmon will have established tanks with a nominal production capacity of 12,941 tons/ year according to their projections. No guiding for harvest in 2026 is given.
Proximar
Pisco expects the company to harvest about 4,000 tons from a standing biomass of 1,949 tons. The facility has had recurring problems with turbidity and CO2-levels, and there has also been reported incidents with mechanical breakdown of the biofilters. The company claims that these issues have now been solved. If that is not the case, it could impact the output significantly as seen in 2024 and 2025.
The company guides a harvest of 4,117– 4,705 tons in 2026 with an average harvest weight of 4 kg, the size is negatively influenced by harvest of smaller fish in Q1. From Q2 and onwards the average harvest size is estimated to be 4.3 kg. In 2025 the total harvest was about 1,593 tons.
The company’s target is to reach an annual production output of 6,235 tons in the facility.
Other facilities
Several other facilities are operational but does not share information publicly, as they are not listed on the stock exchange.
Danish Salmon is likely to hit their target and produce about 2,750 tons in 2026. Output from Skagen Salmon is estimated to hit an output of 3,200-3,600 tons, however this is based on a low confidence estimation based on earlier reported standing biomass.
The three Icelandic producers that are currently operational are likely to hit a combined harvest volume of about 8,000-11,000 tons this year. All three companies are either in the process of expanding (First Water and Laxey) or planning to construct new facilities in the near future (Samherji). In 2027 Thor Landeldi is also likely to add to the tally.
Other facilities like Bue Salmon, Swiss Lachs, Saulmon d’Isigny and other smaller facilities is expected to add another 2,000-4,000 tons.
Total production in 2025 and future outlook
The total harvest across all producers is expected to be about 49,000 tons in 2026. As almost all the major contributors are in ramp up stage, with new modules and tanks continuously coming on-line, the output of the land-based industry is expected to double in 2028 with an expected output range of 80-100,000 tons.
The land-based salmon industry is not fully up and running yet but has certainly started to take the first baby steps. The next few years will be pivotal in future development of the industry