By Morten Bjørn - Senior Lead Developer.
Pisco is continuously monitoring all land-based salmon growout farmers, their performance and their track of production. On the 31st of March I submitted an article on LinkedIn providing an outlook for expected land-based salmon production in 2026. Now the Q1 results have been reported, I have compiled a short, updated outlook. The original article can be found on my LinkedIn profile and on Land-based salmon production outlook 2026 - Pisco Group | Aquaculture Consultancy.
All data below is given in live fish weight equivalents and should not be confused with Heads On Gutted (HOG) that is used by many companies to report harvest. Wherever HOG has been used by companies to report harvest or expected harvest a ratio of HOG to LWE of 0.85 has been assumed. This ratio is however likely to vary between facilities, especially production of smaller fish is likely to cause a lower ratio.
As you will find, the predicted outputs have in general not changed, albeit Gigante Salmon and Proximar is trailing predictions whilst Pisco now predicts a potential larger production from Atlantic Sapphire and a substantial increase from Andfjord Salmon. In general, standing biomass in most facilities are growing, indicating that the next 12 months are likely to see increased output.
Salmon Evolution:
Pisco expected the company to harvest about 7,000 tons from a standing biomass of 3,115 tons in 2026. This number covered phase I and does not account for potential batches that will reach harvest size in the new phase II. The first smolt were released in the new tanks in week 18 of 2026 and are unlikely to be harvested before Q1 2027.
Salmon Evolution harvested 2,076 tons in Q1 but also observed a significant drop in biomass to 2,334 tons. The underlying biomass growth was 1,357 tons in the quarter. Average harvest size was 3.76 which is similar with Q4 of 2025. The company reported improved water quality after some changes with drop in suspended solids in their recent report. It remains to be seen whether it will have impact on the future productivity.
The company guided a harvest of 8,235 tons for 2026. In 2025 the total harvest was about 5,180 tons. Harvest weight was relatively low in 2025 with average harvest size of about 3.7 kg. Given the relatively high harvest volume in Q1 but the observed drop in standing biomass, Pisco maintains the expected output of the facility at about 7,000 tons. The heavy lifting in terms of volume is expected towards the end of the year.
The phase I annual production output target was 9,300 tons before initiation of production.
Atlantic Sapphire:
Pisco expected the company to harvest about 7,000 tons from a standing biomass of 3,437 tons. The facility seems to be running relatively stable now, with a slightly increasing output, compared to the early years with recurrent problems with high temperatures and other operational problems. This is supported by the reported biomass numbers at end of Q1 of 3,420 tons and the harvest numbers were reported as 1,769 tons with an average weight of 3.76 kg.
Both harvest volume, average weight and underlying net biomass gain of 2,187 tons is the best numbers reported by the company. Atlantic Sapphire is therefore on track to hit Pisco’s estimated harvest volume for 2026, with a potential for a small upside of up to 500 tons. Outlook for the next 12 months looks similar.
The company guides a harvest of 8,824 – 10,000 tons moving forward, whilst no concrete 2026 number has been reported. In 2025 the total harvest was about 5,995 tons. Harvest weight was relatively low in 2025 with average harvest size of about 3.4 kg.
The phase I annual production output target was 11,000 tons before initiation of production.
Nordic Aqua partners:
Pisco expected the company to harvest about 6,800 tons from a standing biomass of 3,749 tons. The facility is probably the most difficult to predict, as the new phase II is now operational and the earlier problems with off-flavour and culling of a large proportion of the stock results in somewhat fluctuating output. Pisco estimates that the biomass removed and not harvested accounts for about 2,600 tons (all years). Average harvest size has also varied wildly in 2025 with 7.5 kg in Q1, 5.6 in Q2, 3.8 kg in Q3 and 4.0 kg in Q4. Pisco estimate of production output has been guided down due to the company’s stated target of producing larger fish. If NAP were targeting 4.5 kg fish, the likely output in 2026 would be 7,900 tons LWE.
The company guides a harvest of 5,882 – 7,058 tons in 2026. Harvest is likely to be skewered towards the second half of the year with first harvest from phase II in September. In 2025 the total harvest was about 2,383 tons. Average harvest size was of about 4.7 kg in 2025 with fish considerably larger in H1 than in H2. The company targets a harvest weight of 7 kg fish LWE moving forward.
So far, the company harvested 946 tons in Q1 but at the same time the biomass swelled to 4,991 tons. This supports the earlier predictions that harvests are likely to be much heavier in the coming quarters and especially in Q3 and Q4. Current guiding from the company is 1,175-1,411 tons in Q2. Total biomass production was 2,161 tons in Q1 and is likely to be even higher in Q2. Average harvest weight was 5.4 kg LWE and 4.4 kg HOG (81.5% HOG yield). With the current trajectory it seems plausible that the company will harvest the predicted 6,800 tons, which is within the company’s guidance.
The two first phases of the facility were planned with production output of 9,400 tons per year combined. With current trajectory it is not unlikely that this will be achieved already in 2027.
Gigante Salmon:
Pisco expects the company to harvest about 3,800 tons from a standing biomass of 3,000 tons. Approximately 2,835 tons will come from Generation Autumn 2024 and the remaining will come from Generation Autumn 2025 (Q4 harvest). The standing biomass is likely to be much higher at end of 2026 (8,000 tons) with the remaining basins likely to be operational from Q2 2026. Harvest volume will be heavily affected by the average harvest size of the 2024 batch (assumed average 4.5 kg). If fish are withheld for longer in the system the harvest volume could deviate from expectations with up to 15%.
The company harvested 1,094 tons in Q1 of 2026 and had a remaining biomass of the Autumn 2024 batch remaining in the facility of 985 tons (266,000 fish). This batch is likely to be harvested in Q2 and will contribute another 1,100-1,300 tons to the 2026 target depending on average size when harvested. The average size of the harvested fish so far is surprisingly low at 3.4 kg, reportedly stemming from “gill challenges” and “mechanical damages”.
The company did not guide a harvest target for 2026. Harvest is likely to be skewered towards the first half of the year as the 2024 batch is harvested. In 2025 the total harvest was about 1,223 tons. Since the 2025 report was issued, Gigante communicated a reduction in harvest guidance for 2027 from 10,600 tons to 8,000-8,500 tons. The reason was increased mortality caused by winter ulcers on the smolt released in November 2025. Despite this the average weight of the fish in this batch is somewhat higher than the corresponding 2024 batch being harvested currently.
Taking the above into account, it is likely that the company will fall somewhat short of the estimated target for 2026 as the 2024 batch only contributes about 2,300 tons (500 tons short) of earlier estimations, due to the low average harvest size. Depending on summer temperatures we are still likely to see some harvest of the 2025 batch in 2026 of 500-1,000 tons. Therefore, the predicted harvest for 2026 is now reduced to about 3,000-3,300 tons from 3,835 tons.
The company’s target is to reach an annual production output of 18,823 tons.
Andfjord Salmon:
Pisco expected the company to harvest about 1,600 tons in 2026, assuming the first batch in K0 reaches 4.5 kg on average before end of year. Standing biomass was 530 tons end of 2025. This is in line with realized growth from their trial batch in 2022/ 2023. It is not expected that the second batch in K1 is harvested before Q1 2027, albeit partial harvest could happen earlier, which could then drive up 2026 Harvest with as much as 1,000 tons.
Much has changed at Andfjord since the start of the year. The company has recently entered a post-smolt delivery agreement with Eidsfjord Sjøfarm. The first 450,000 fish are expected to be delivered already in June 2026, which translates into a partial harvest of about 600 tons. Partial production of post-smolt will drive up the MAB utilization on the facility and makes a lot of sense.
Expected K1 harvest have been moved somewhat forward and is now planned in Q4-2026 and Q1-2027. K0 is likely to be fully harvested in 2026 with expected first harvest dates moved forward to Q3. That means that there is a potential for harvesting 350,000 (K0) and 150,000-200,000 (K1) fish before end of year. Assuming an average harvest size of 4- 4.5 kgs the corresponding output in 2026 will be about 2,200 – 2,500 tons. Adding the 600 tons of post-smolt results in an updated harvest forecast for 2026 of 2,800-3,100 tons or almost double the expected output given earlier this year.
It should be noted that the sale of post-smolt and the earlier harvest dates will affect the 2027 output from the facility. The newly stocked smolt in the K3 tank is reported to be reserved for post-smolt production. This leaves very few fish in the facility dedicated for full harvest size production and next year’s output is thus depending on the timing of the commissioning of the K2 and K4 tanks as well as the restocking of the K0 tank after harvest. Fish stocked later than mid-November are unlikely to add to the tally in 2027, unless they are sold as post-smolt.
By Q2 2026 Andfjord Salmon will have established tanks with a nominal production capacity of 12,941 tons/ year according to their projections. No guiding for harvest in 2026 has been given.
Proximar:
Pisco expected the company to harvest about 4,000 tons from an end of year standing biomass of 1,949 tons in 2026. Harvests in Q1 came in at 840 tons with an average weight of just 2.25 kg HOG (2.65 kg LWE), with an additional 533 tons harvested by Mid-May. The biomass has now dropped to 1,880 tons.
The company originally guided a harvest of 4,117– 4,705 tons in 2026 with an average harvest weight of 4 kg, the size is negatively influenced by harvest of smaller fish in Q1. From Q2 and onwards the average harvest size is estimated to be 4.3 kg. In 2025 the total harvest was about 1,593 tons. In the new update the company reduce expectations to 3,539-4,000 tons of harvest in 2026. The reason given is to target harvest of larger fish, harvest of one batch has therefore been postponed to Q1 in 2027.
The initial estimate of 4,000 tons of harvest this year is still perceived as realistic, albeit the company now guides a lower harvest target. A good Solomonic estimate is therefore to curbing initial estimate with 300 tons to 3,500 tons. Over the next 12 months (Q2-26 to Q1-27) the harvest is expected to be 4,000 tons. It remains to be seen whether Proximar can achieve its goal of increasing the average harvest size, while maintaining output. Presented growth date indicates that the fish growth slows significantly after they reach a size of approximately 2,000g
The company’s target is to reach an annual production output of 6,235 tons in the facility.
Other facilities
Several other facilities are operational but does not share information publicly, as they are not listed on the stock exchange. Pisco maintains the expectations to the output from these facilities.
Danish Salmon is likely to hit their target and produce about 2,750 tons in 2026. Output from Skagen Salmon is estimated to hit an output of 3,200-3,600 tons, however this is based on a low confidence estimation based on earlier reported standing biomass.
The three Icelandic producers that are currently operational are likely to hit a combined harvest volume of about 8,000-11,000 tons this year. All three companies are either in the process of expanding (First Water and Laxey) or planning to construct new facilities in the near future (Samherji). In 2027 Thor Landeldi is also likely to add to the tally.
Other facilities like Bue Salmon, Swiss Lachs, Saulmon d’Isigny and other smaller facilities is expected to add another 2,000-4,000 tons.
Total production in 2026 and future outlook:
The total harvest across all producers is still expected to be about 49,000 tons in 2026. Which is supported by only small changes in expected yearly harvests across main actors. As almost all the major contributors are in ramp up stage, with new modules and tanks continuously coming on-line, the output of the land-based industry is expected to double in 2028 with an expected output range of 80-100,000 tons.
The land-based salmon industry is not fully up and running yet but has certainly started to take the first baby steps. The next few years will be pivotal in future development of the industry. Watch out for developments in Iceland, Norway, Japan and Spain in the short to medium term.