By Morten Bjørn - Senior Lead Developer.
Pisco is continuously monitoring all land-based salmon growout farmers, their performance and their track of production. On the 31st of March we submitted an article on LinkedIn providing an outlook for expected land-based salmon production in 2026. A later update treated the data from Q1. Now the Q2 results have been reported, and I have compiled a short, updated outlook. The original article can be found on Pisco’s webpage and on Land-based salmon production outlook 2026 - Pisco Group | Aquaculture Consultancy and the Q1 update can be found on Land-based salmon production outlook 2026 – end of Q1 update - Pisco Group | Aquaculture Consultancy.
All data below is given in live fish weight equivalents and should not be confused with Heads On Gutted (HOG) that is used by many companies to report harvest. Wherever HOG has been used by companies to report harvest or expected harvest a ratio of HOG to LWE of 0.85 has been assumed. This ratio is however likely to vary between facilities, especially production of smaller fish is likely to cause a lower ratio.
As you will find, the predicted outputs have in general not changed, albeit Gigante Salmon and Proximar are trailing predictions whilst Pisco now predicts a potential larger production from Atlantic Sapphire and a substantial increase from Andfjord Salmon. In general, the standing biomass in most facilities is growing, indicating that the next 12 months are likely to see increased output. Nordic Aqua Partners shows promising results and have increased their lower end guidance for the year. Nordic Aqua Partners is also on track to achieve full planned harvest already next year according to Pisco’s observations.
Salmon Evolution:
Pisco expected the company to harvest about 7,000 tons from a standing biomass of 3,115 tons in 2026. This number covered phase I and does not account for potential batches that will reach harvest size in the new phase II facility. The first smolt were released in the new tanks in week 18 of 2026 and are unlikely to be harvested before Q1 2027.
Salmon Evolution harvested 2,076 tons in Q1 and 1,112 tons in Q2. The biomass has increased somewhat since Q1 and was 2,897 tons at end of Q2. The underlying biomass growth was 1,706 tons in the quarter. Average harvest size was 4.12 which is higher than in previous quarters, and it seems to be a focus for the company to increase harvest sizes.
In 2025 the total harvest was about 5,180 tons. Harvest weight was relatively low in 2025 with average harvest size of about 3.7 kg. Given the relatively high harvest volume in Q1 and relatively low harvest volume in Q2 combined with a slight drop in biomass since Q4-25, Pisco reduces the expected output of the facility from 7,000 tons to 6,500 tons. The company guided a harvest of 8,235 tons for 2026 – this target seems increasingly difficult to reach. Pisco now considers it highly unlikely that the guidance is reached.
The phase I annual production output target was 9,300 tons before initiation of production.
Atlantic Sapphire:
Pisco expected the company to harvest about 7,000 tons from a standing biomass of 3,437 tons at end of Q4. The facility seems to be running relatively stable now, with a slightly increasing output, compared to the early years with recurrent problems with high temperatures and other operational problems. This trend continued in Q2.
Atlantic Sapphire is therefore still on track to hit Pisco’s estimated harvest volume for 2026, with a potential for a small upside of up to 500 tons. Outlook for the next 12 months looks similar.
The company guides a harvest of 8,824 – 10,000 tons moving forward, whilst no concrete 2026 number has been reported. In 2025 the total harvest was about 5,995 tons. Harvest weight was relatively low in 2025 with average harvest size of about 3.4 kg this has increased to 3.7 kg in 2026. During H1 of 2026 the company has managed to harvest 3,344 tons (2,842 tons HOG), this puts them on target for the Pisco estimate of 7,000 tons for all of 2026, especially given that their biomass has now increased to 3,592 tons.
The phase I annual production output target was 11,000 tons before initiation of production. This is perceived to be unrealistic even in the long term.
Nordic Aqua partners:
Pisco expected the company to harvest about 6,800 tons from a standing biomass of 3,749 tons. The facility is probably the most difficult to predict, as the new phase II is now operational and the earlier problems with off-flavour and culling of a large proportion of the stock results in somewhat fluctuating output. Average harvest size has also varied wildly in 2025 with 7.5 kg in Q1, 5.6 in Q2, 3.8 kg in Q3 and 4.0 kg in Q4. Pisco’s estimated production output has been guided down due to the company’s stated target of producing larger fish. If NAP were targeting 4.5 kg fish, the likely output in 2026 would be 7,900 tons LWE.
The company guided a harvest of 5,882 – 7,058 tons in 2026, now the low-end range has been increased to 6,471 tons. Harvest is likely to be skewered towards the second half of the year with first harvest from phase II in September.
In 2025 the total harvest was about 2,383 tons. Average harvest size was of about 4.7 kg in 2025 with fish considerably larger in H1 than in H2. The company targets a harvest weight of 7 kg fish LWE moving forward but has only achieved an average of 5.3 kg (4.4 kg HOG) in H1 of 2026. While lower than their target, it should though be mentioned that this is considerably higher average harvest size than all their peers.
The company harvested 946 tons in Q1 but at the same time the biomass swelled to 4,991 tons. The pattern repeated in Q2 with a harvest of 1,602 tons and an increase in standing biomass to 5,664 tons. In both Q1 and Q2 the actual production (biomass gain + harvest) exceeded 2,000 tons per quarter (2,294 tons in Q2).
This supports the earlier predictions that harvests are likely to be much heavier in the coming quarters and especially in Q3 and Q4. Current guiding from the company is 1,647-1,882 tons in Q3, which indicates further growth in the standing biomass in Q3.
With the current trajectory it seems plausible that the company will harvest the predicted 6,800 tons, which is also within the company’s guidance. It will require a minimum of 2,200 tons harvest in Q4, which is realistic with the current biomass generation in the facility.
The two first phases of the facility were planned with production output of 9,400 tons per year combined (8,000 tons HOG). With current trajectory and an impressive 5,664 tons of standing biomass it is not unlikely that this will be achieved already in 2027.
Gigante Salmon:
Pisco expected the company to harvest about 3,800 tons from a standing biomass of 3,000 tons at the start of the year. Approximately 2,835 tons was expected to come from Generation Autumn 2024 and the remaining will come from Generation Autumn 2025 (Q4 harvest). However, the company only harvested 1,094 tons in Q1 of 2026 and another 798 tons in Q2 for a total of 1,862 tons. This is considerably lower tonnage than expected from the Autumn 2024 generation and can in general be contributed to much lower average harvest weights than anticipated of about 3.5 kg LWE (2.9 kg HOG).
The Autumn 2025 batch is slightly larger (1,220g) at end of Q2 than the corresponding Autumn 2024 batch (1,000g) was one year ago. It is, however, still unlikely that the company will be able to reach planned harvest sizes, unless they keep the fish in the system longer than currently planned. This notion is further supported by reports by the company that they have problems with uneven distribution of fish and oxygen in the fish tanks and that there are challenges with sludge accumulation.
The company did not guide a harvest target for 2026. In 2025 the total harvest was about 1,223 tons. Since the 2025 report was issued, Gigante communicated a reduction in harvest guidance for 2027 from 10,600 tons to 8,000-8,500 tons. Gigante has now communicated that they do not expect a harvest of more than 5,000-6,200 tons from the Autumn 2025 batch and that the subsequent batch will also be delayed. The corresponding expected harvest size is about 2.9-3.5 kg LWE.
Taking the above into account, it is likely that the company will fall considerably short of the estimated target for 2026, as the 2024 batch only contributes about 1,862 tons (1,000 tons short) of earlier estimations, due to the low average harvest size and the fact that the 2025 batch will be delayed. Depending on summer temperatures, we are still likely to see some harvest of the 2025 batch in 2026 of 500-1,000 tons. Therefore, the predicted harvest for 2026 is now reduced to about 2,300-2,500 tons from 3,835 tons.
The company’s target is to reach an annual production output of 18,823 tons.
Andfjord Salmon:
Pisco expected the company to harvest about 1,600 tons in 2026, assuming the first batch in K0 reaches 4.5 kg on average before end of year. Standing biomass was 530 tons end of 2025. This is in line with realized growth from their trial batch in 2022/ 2023. It is not expected that the second batch in K1 is harvested before Q1 2027, albeit partial harvest could happen earlier, which could then drive up 2026 Harvest with as much as 1,000 tons.
Much has changed at Andfjord since the start of the year. The company has recently entered a post-smolt delivery agreement with Eidsfjord Sjøfarm. The first 450,000 fish or 562 tons were delivered already in June 2026. Partial production of post-smolt will drive up the MAB utilization on the facility and makes a lot of sense from an efficiency point of view.
Expected K1 harvest have been moved somewhat forward and is now planned in Q4-2026 and Q1-2027. K0 is likely to be fully harvested in 2026 with expected first harvest dates indicated by the company to be in Q3. That means that there is a potential for harvesting 350,000 (K0) and 150,000-200,000 (K1) fish before end of year. The fish are per the 26th of August 2,900 g (K0) and 2,510 g (K1) average size.
It should be noted that the sale of post-smolt and the earlier harvest dates will affect the 2027 output from the facility. The smolt stocked in the K3 tank is reported to be reserved for post-smolt production and should be delivered in Q4, as per the 26th of August they reached a size of 456g, so delivery of +1 kg fish in Q4 should be achievable.
Harvests of full-size fish and post-smolt leaves very few fish in the facility dedicated for full harvest size. Next year’s output is thus depending on the timing of the commissioning of the K2 and K4 tanks as well as the restocking of the K0 tank after harvest. K2 and K4 is now set to be commissioned in Q3, whilst the two next tanks K5 and K7 will be brought online in H1 of 2027. The fish in the K1 tank stocked later than mid-November are unlikely to add to the tally in 2027, unless they are sold as post-smolt. Given this year’s deliveries, it is however likely that 1,000-2,000 tons of post-smolt will be delivered in 2027.
Assuming an average harvest size of 4- 4.5 kgs the corresponding output of harvest size fish in 2026 will be about 2,200 – 2,500 tons. Adding the 562 tons already delivered of post-smolt and another 550 tons in Q4 results in an updated harvest forecast for 2026 of 3,300-3,600 tons or more than double the expected output given earlier this year.
By Q2 2026 Andfjord Salmon will have established tanks with a nominal production capacity of 12,941 tons/ year according to their projections. No guiding for harvest in 2026 has been given.
Proximar:
Pisco expected the company to harvest about 4,000 tons from an end of year standing biomass of 1,949 tons in 2026. Harvests in Q1 came in at 840 tons with an average weight of just 2.25 kg HOG (2.65 kg LWE) and an additional harvest in Q2 of 875 tons with an average weight of 2.85 kg HOG (3.35 kg LWE). The biomass has now dropped to 1,730 tons, down from at the 1,880 tons at end of Q1.
The company originally guided a harvest of 4,117– 4,705 tons in 2026 with an average harvest weight of 4 kg, the size is negatively influenced by harvest of smaller fish in Q1. From Q2 and onwards, the average harvest size was estimated to be 4.3 kg (3.35 kg LWE in Q2. In the Q1 update, the company reduce expectations to 3,539-4,000 tons of harvest in 2026. In the Q2 report this have further been reduced to 3,527 tons, which aligns pretty well with current harvest rates. The decrease in standing biomass over the year does however cause some concern.
The initial estimate of 4,000 tons of harvest this year is now perceived as unrealistic. Pisco therefore agrees with the company’s reduced estimation of about 3,500 tons. Over the next 12 months (Q3-26 to Q2-27) Pisco now estimates the harvest to be 3,600 tons, due to the reduction in biomass. It remains to be seen whether Proximar can achieve its goal of increasing the average harvest size, while maintaining output. Proximar guides a harvest of 4,117– 4,705 tons in 2027 with further increases in 2028 and 2029. If that is to be realized, they will have to increase the standing biomass considerably from current levels. Pisco perceives the 2027 target to be unrealistic.
The company has switched to early harvest of slow growers instead of fast growers, which is a very sensible strategy, as it will allow the company to take advantage of the genetic variability. This is perceived to affect the harvest size positively in the next couple of quarters.
The company’s target is to reach an annual production output of 6,235 tons in the facility.
Other facilities
Several other facilities are operational but does not share information publicly, as they are not listed on the stock exchange. Pisco maintains the expectations to the output from these facilities.
Danish Salmon is likely to hit their target and produce about 2,750 tons in 2026. Industry rumours have them pretty close to this target already in 2025. Output from Skagen Salmon is estimated to hit an output of 3,200-3,600 tons, however this is based on a low confidence estimation based on earlier reported standing biomass. The 2025 output was likely approximately 3,000 tons.
The three Icelandic producers that are currently operational are likely to hit a combined harvest volume of about 8,000-11,000 tons this year. All three companies are either in the process of expanding (First Water and Laxey) or planning to construct new facilities in the near future (Samherji). In 2027 Thor Landeldi is also likely to add to the tally.
Other facilities like Bue Salmon, Swiss Lachs, Saulmon d’Isigny and other smaller facilities are expected to add another 2,000-4,000 tons. Årdal Aqua also harvested 610 tons in Q2 but has now switched to post-smolt production.
Total production in 2026 and future outlook:
The total harvest across all producers is still expected to be about 49,000 tons in 2026. Which is supported by only small changes in expected yearly harvests across main actors. As almost all the major contributors are in ramp up stage, with new modules and tanks continuously coming on-line, the output of the land-based industry is expected to double in 2028 with an expected output range of 80-100,000 tons.
The land-based salmon industry is not fully up and running yet but has certainly started to take the first baby steps. The next few years will be pivotal in future development of the industry. Watch out for developments in Iceland, Norway, Japan and Spain in the short to medium term.
Other related news
Columbi Salmon has started construction of their Burela facility in Spain under the name Seafood Legacy Spain. The company’s target is to produce 3,500 tons per year. First harvest is likely to be in 2029 if assuming first eggs in next year.
Hima Seafood had a setback in their production of their 9,000 tons per year trout facility in Rjukan. It is reported that mortality has increased to 15%, which is considerably higher than the targeted 0.5%. The company has indicated that the fish died due to low oxygen levels and that the oxygen system is now being replaced with a new system.
Årdal Aqua in Norway has just reported that they are switching to more lucrative post-smolt production albeit hitting a 95% superior share on their harvest size fish in their 15,000 tons facility (40% of capacity is installed). The facility harvested 610 tons in Q2.
Great Northern’s 7,000 tons facility in Maine has been put on hold due to increased constructions costs. The company has reported that high inflation and Donald Trump’s tariffs has caused the establishment budget to swell.
Pure Salmon Japan has transferred their first fish from the hatchery to the start feeding department in June. Given an expected production time of about 21 months, that would set the company up for first harvest in Q1/Q2 of 2028.